Trump and Brexit

This may be a muddled post but it is now a muddled world. The hegemony of the last few decades has started to fray at the edges, probably no more than that. But once a dam wall has been breached a flood is likely. So too Trump and Brexit may represent the breach.

The ruling elite of the uber rich, the large global corporations and their political hangers-on have for too long ignored or been ignorant of the mass of their populations seeing their prosperity and their prospects stagnate. One should remember that these people are not just the old working class but also many in the middle class.Their frustrations and resentments have been exploited by public figures largely for their own ends. Boris Johnson is a classic example of somebody grasping for power on the backs of the disaffected. But Trump is the same only he has succeeded. For all the public record of his statements we actually have no idea what he believes in, let alone what he will do over the next four years.

The reaction to this muddle has also been apparently muddled. Why has the English Press so insanely and viciously attacked the Judges ruling on Parliament and Brexit? It does not make sense as Brexit is part of the breakdown of  the old order. Unless the Press Barons see an opportunity for more power which we can’t see.

Nothing in the future is predictable in this sea of uncertainty. However This turmoil is unlikely to solve the problems of the Trump and Brexit supporters nor will it solve the refugee crises and the growing problems of youth unemployment. It is likely to lead to further disruption in the EU and the Middle East as populist parties take advantage of the situation in forthcoming elections and conflicting loyalties and policies add to the troubles in Syria and North Africa.

Much will be written and many soothsayers will predict our future but uncertainty will be the only certainty.


Vote in House of Commons

Radio 4 is suggesting that it is the shadow of Iraq which has influenced the MPs to vote against war with Syria. Surely for some MPs have looked at the evidence and found that armed interventions very rarely do any good; Iraq, Afghanistan are just obvious examples. John Humphrey and Paddy Ashton on Today seem to have the same idea that this one decision has completely diminished our standing in the world and altered our foreign policy for the future. On the contrary, it may actually strengthen our standing and  demonstrate that we can think for ourselves and not just meekly do what the United States wants. That may also give Presidents of the USA the message that they actually should take the trouble to make a convincing case if they want our assistance in future. If that is the case then UK governments may also be less gungho and take better care in using intelligence evidence when contemplating armed interventions. In short good may well come out of this vote.