Just for the Record

I am not sure why I feel this way but I do have a feeling that the June 8th election may well see Theresa May lose her overall Westminster majority. At the same time I think the SNP will lose several seats in Scotland.

This will make an already chaotic situation even worse as it will put Brexit negotiations and the second Scottish independence vote into areas of even more uncertainty.

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After GE2017

There are perhaps three possible outcomes to the June General Election.

The Tories may lose their overall majority. We live in strange unpredictable times so this is not impossible. However this in itself will bring even more chaos.

The majority may stay more or less the same. We then know we are probably heading for a hard Brexit.

The Tory majority increases. Then we are definitely heading for a hard Brexit if we are to believe Theresa May.

What about Scotland?

If Theresa May is secured and Scotland decides to stay in the Union then the Scottish parliament’s days are numbered.

If Scotland breaks away then England will diminish and  Scotland could flourish.

Political Cowards

I cannot help but think that the politicians who are voting for Brexit against their better judgment will rue the day. Presumably they think that kowtowing to the narrow majority of constituents who voted Leave will get them re-elected at the next general election. However when those same constituents see that their vote has left them worse not better off with just as many immigrants “stealing their jobs” they will naturally blame those in power who have led them up this garden path.

Our MPs are elected to use their best endeavours for the good of the electorate, not to be spineless lobby fodder at Westminster. If a politician does not agree with a course of action taken by the government of the day they should vote accordingly.

This is most especially true in the present situation where Britain is about to embark on the most momentous voluntary course of action in a century.

Referendums or Even Referenda

The time would appear to be ripe for further government by the people. In spite of being a representative democracy the UK members of parliament have decided to honour the result of the EU referendum whatever their own positions on the desirability of Brexit; this even though the referendum was advisory.

While Westminster is in the mood to meekly accept the result of any referendum how about some more…

  • one to ban drinking on Sunday
  • one banning Fox Hunting
  • another to abolish the House of Lords
  • another to bring back the death penalty
  • even one to turn the UK into a republic so we can have a Trump like president of our own.

Scotland’s Brexit

Mostly the media commentary about Brexit is conjecture. However as far as Scotland is concerned there is a fact that should not be ignored. The devolved government in Holyrood was set up by a UK Act of Parliament and could just as easily be done away by the MPs at Westminster as Pete Wishart MP writes. The Tories have a majority there and Theresa May could get rid of the thorn of the Scottish Parliament if she judged that to be in her interests vis a vis Brexit. That would leave Scotland unable to influence or decide its own future.

Brexit at the moment is all politics, nothing decided and all to play for so Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit plan is part of the political chess game she is playing with the UK government. So are her visits to European leaders and to Dublin. By giving Scotland such a high profile on the Brexit scene she is hoping to make any foul play by Theresa May more difficult to carry out. To date her reasonable and practicable ideas and plans have found much favour and will be hard to ignore. What is more she is keeping alive the sense of destiny that grips many Scots at the present time.

Commentators saying she will not achieve what she would like are probably right but better to play for high stakes than tamely give in to a lifetime of Tory rule direct from Westminster.

For a very detailed look at the Scottish parliaments powers and the fact that in UN terms the UK is defined as two countries read the Grouse Beater.

Demagogues as Leaders

Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump are all part of the same phenomenon, the disruption of the status quo. The number of  voters who are unsatisfied with the way they are treated by the system has reached a critical mass and the result has confounded pollsters and pundits alike.

It is unfortunate that the people who have exploited this revolution have proved to be inadequate at least and in the some cases demagogues of the worst kind.

Brexit

I have not posted to my blog for months. Instead I have sat back appalled by events.

However It seems to me that those little Englanders who voted for us to  leave the EU under the illusion that England could once again be Great Britannia have actually put the final nails in the coffin of that pipedream. They will find that while the UK could delude itself that it was somehow special while part of the European Union once on its own they will find that England has suddenly become part of a offshore island of little consequence to the giants of world finance. Having to renegotiate from a weak position all the EU treaties we presently take for granted will take years and will at every turn demonstrate how insignificant trade with England will have become. Perhaps at last the little Englander world view will be dead.

Meanwhile Tory Prime Minister, Theresa May, who was a Remain supporter has capitulated to the extreme EU sceptics in her party. In a parliamentary democracy, there should be no such thing as a binding referendum, certainly not on something which has the potential to sweep away 300 years of history and leave England on its own in an increasingly hostile world. It should be parliament that decides the way ahead, taking into account the marginal majority of the referendum voters. Instead May has compounded the facile, lazy way in which Cameron brought about the referendum by cow towing to the vociferous hardliners in her party in a populist fashion worthy of all the worst populist parties in Europe. The Conservative party has become overnight virtually indistinguishable from UKIP.