I am not sure why I feel this way but I do have a feeling that the June 8th election may well see Theresa May lose her overall Westminster majority. At the same time I think the SNP will lose several seats in Scotland.
This will make an already chaotic situation even worse as it will put Brexit negotiations and the second Scottish independence vote into areas of even more uncertainty.
I have not written anything for several weeks now as events have moved so fast that there has been no time to reflect. What is more, there is a deluge of comment out there which has highlighted every possible extreme for the future. However I cannot remain silent for ever so I have to find a way of commenting on individual events in slightly more than the 140 characters of Twitter.
There would appear to be no overwhelming reason to trigger Brexit. A minority of the UK population voted for it and a slightly smaller minority voted against it. The referendum was clearly advisory so why do it?
The ordinary voters who voted to leave the EU appear to have been in the main people who felt completely excluded from and powerless in modern society. But the leaders of the Leave campaign were clearly not in that group. So what do the hard line Brexiters including most of the press think they are going to gain from what becomes clearer by the day will be a much impoverished UK?
I am appalled by the casualness of Brexit from Cameron’s initial blunder to the schoolboy antics of the Brexit ministers.
Brexit whichever side you are on is the most momentous event in the history of Britain for several centuries. It completely alters our post war situation in the global framework. It will take years to complete and may well have side effects across Europe.
And yet every politician involved right from the start has treated it in much the same way as they would play Monopoly. Not a single one of them is confronting the appalling situation the UK finds itself in. Likewise the Main Stream Media are one and all acting on their own paltry agendas including apparently the BBC.
History will come to regard 2016 as the zenith of of madness in a dangerous world, the culmination of years of self-indulgence by the British political elite.
This may be a muddled post but it is now a muddled world. The hegemony of the last few decades has started to fray at the edges, probably no more than that. But once a dam wall has been breached a flood is likely. So too Trump and Brexit may represent the breach.
The ruling elite of the uber rich, the large global corporations and their political hangers-on have for too long ignored or been ignorant of the mass of their populations seeing their prosperity and their prospects stagnate. One should remember that these people are not just the old working class but also many in the middle class.Their frustrations and resentments have been exploited by public figures largely for their own ends. Boris Johnson is a classic example of somebody grasping for power on the backs of the disaffected. But Trump is the same only he has succeeded. For all the public record of his statements we actually have no idea what he believes in, let alone what he will do over the next four years.
The reaction to this muddle has also been apparently muddled. Why has the English Press so insanely and viciously attacked the Judges ruling on Parliament and Brexit? It does not make sense as Brexit is part of the breakdown of the old order. Unless the Press Barons see an opportunity for more power which we can’t see.
Nothing in the future is predictable in this sea of uncertainty. However This turmoil is unlikely to solve the problems of the Trump and Brexit supporters nor will it solve the refugee crises and the growing problems of youth unemployment. It is likely to lead to further disruption in the EU and the Middle East as populist parties take advantage of the situation in forthcoming elections and conflicting loyalties and policies add to the troubles in Syria and North Africa.
Much will be written and many soothsayers will predict our future but uncertainty will be the only certainty.
I have the feeling that everything worth saying about Scottish Independence has now been said. Ron Ferguson in the Press & Journal summarises the debate clearly.
We have gone through all the technical arguments with neither side in the debate actually being terribly convincing. The future is not ours to know about sums it up. So it remains a single question. Each individual voter has to rely on their own emotional psyche, if there is such a thing, to decide a preference for government from Westminster or from Holyrood.
I personally believe that England which dominates Westminster is going in a direction which I don’t like and that it will not easily be changed. Scottish voters will have minimal influence. On the other hand I have written before that I doubt some of the present politicians’ abilities. So I do hope that a Yes vote will result in many of the present campaigners stepping up to the plate to make Scotland a society we can all be proud of.