Just for the Record

I am not sure why I feel this way but I do have a feeling that the June 8th election may well see Theresa May lose her overall Westminster majority. At the same time I think the SNP will lose several seats in Scotland.

This will make an already chaotic situation even worse as it will put Brexit negotiations and the second Scottish independence vote into areas of even more uncertainty.

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After GE2017

There are perhaps three possible outcomes to the June General Election.

The Tories may lose their overall majority. We live in strange unpredictable times so this is not impossible. However this in itself will bring even more chaos.

The majority may stay more or less the same. We then know we are probably heading for a hard Brexit.

The Tory majority increases. Then we are definitely heading for a hard Brexit if we are to believe Theresa May.

What about Scotland?

If Theresa May is secured and Scotland decides to stay in the Union then the Scottish parliament’s days are numbered.

If Scotland breaks away then England will diminish and  Scotland could flourish.

Give Me One Good Reason for Brexit

I would like a hard-line Brexiter to give me one good reason for it. I don’t want to hear about immigration or making Britain great or Global UK. All that is pie in the sky, more spin, more hot air.

There will be no bonanza of jobs for jobless Britons; it will be years before we have a workforce able to take on existing low paid jobs. As for highly skilled jobs in our universities and health system there is no chance in the foreseeable future that we will not need skilled people from abroad. In fact Brexit could well reduce that workforce disastrously.

The big players, USA, China and the EU will extract their pound of flesh for every trade deal. The USA in particular has, ever since WWII, obtained the maximum benefit from any trade deals especially from the UK, think Lend-Lease.

So come on. What’s in it for us, the ordinary citizen of the UK?

Why Keep the Union?

I am more and more puzzled by the attitude of the Westminster pro-Unionists? Why do they want to hang on to Scotland? It’s full of pesky people always whinging, always demanding more and costing the English taxpayer a fortune or so we are told; Nicola Sturgeon arguing with the PM about what she wants from Brexit. Why not just let the English have a referendum to get rid?

Firstly I supposed there is sentiment. Maybe the UK PM does not want to end up as the rUK PM and go down in history as the one who lost Scotland, a bit like Lord North losing the USA.

It seems more likely knowing the present Tory government that it is about money. So do they know something the Scots don’t. England has few natural resources and has only a small manufacturing sector. Scotland has oil which England always points out is about to run dry. Is that the clue? Is it actually that Scotland is a useful economic milch cow for rUK? It certainly would explain the hysterical blasts of invective and downright misinformation that accompanies any attempt by Scotland to break free.

Scotland’s Brexit

Mostly the media commentary about Brexit is conjecture. However as far as Scotland is concerned there is a fact that should not be ignored. The devolved government in Holyrood was set up by a UK Act of Parliament and could just as easily be done away by the MPs at Westminster as Pete Wishart MP writes. The Tories have a majority there and Theresa May could get rid of the thorn of the Scottish Parliament if she judged that to be in her interests vis a vis Brexit. That would leave Scotland unable to influence or decide its own future.

Brexit at the moment is all politics, nothing decided and all to play for so Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit plan is part of the political chess game she is playing with the UK government. So are her visits to European leaders and to Dublin. By giving Scotland such a high profile on the Brexit scene she is hoping to make any foul play by Theresa May more difficult to carry out. To date her reasonable and practicable ideas and plans have found much favour and will be hard to ignore. What is more she is keeping alive the sense of destiny that grips many Scots at the present time.

Commentators saying she will not achieve what she would like are probably right but better to play for high stakes than tamely give in to a lifetime of Tory rule direct from Westminster.

For a very detailed look at the Scottish parliaments powers and the fact that in UN terms the UK is defined as two countries read the Grouse Beater.

Brexit Casual

I am appalled by the casualness of Brexit from Cameron’s initial blunder to the schoolboy antics of the Brexit ministers.

Brexit whichever side you are on is the most momentous event in the history of Britain for several centuries. It completely alters our post war situation in the global framework. It will take years to complete and  may well have side effects across Europe.

And yet every politician involved right from the start has treated it in much the same way as they would play Monopoly. Not a single one of them is confronting the appalling situation the UK finds itself in. Likewise the Main Stream Media are one and all  acting on their own paltry agendas including apparently the BBC.

History will come  to regard 2016 as the zenith of of madness in a dangerous world, the culmination of years of self-indulgence by the British political elite.

GE15 Election Myths and Misinformation

The main political parties are all in the business of frightening voters about the dire consequences in post election Britain which will result from a vote for another party.

If the Tories form the government they will continue their ideological mission to downsize the public sector and allow the private sector free reign to milk the public finances. They are the party of neo-lib policies based on the free market model of the Chicago School of Economics as highlighted by Naomi Klein in her book, The Shock Doctrine (2007). Ann Pettifor in Just Money refers to our present financial elite as “robber barons” and they are the ones manipulating the finger puppets within the Tory party. They are however really worried by the SNP and the effect they are having on the campaign, hence the several headless chicken scenarios going on.

If Labour forms a minority administration on a “confidence and supply” basis with the smaller parties one would hope for an orderly conduct of business over the next five years. Trident should be at least maintained with Conservative assistance while a budget compromise with some slackening of austerity is on the cards. The UK debt and deficit is being blown up as a scare tactic. National good housekeeping is not the same as your average family’s. Tweeter @buddy_hell explains the fallacy well. So whether we have a small continuing deficit or a small surplus at the end of the parliament is neither here not there in terms of a trillion pound total debt. Better economic management of money could well reduce the percentage deficit faster than the austerity model of deficit management.

However I fear the worst. The present Tories will stop at nothing to get back into power. They will never support a Labour government vote even to save Trident but will pursue every means fair or foul to bring down the government at the earliest opportunity. In this they will have the whole of the right wing press to help. The blatant scaremongering in the election campaign will be as nothing. If it damages the country’s credit rating so much the better; the quicker the Labour government will collapse. Why do this? Because in the immediate aftermath of the election only the Tories will have the money to fight another election and they will do anything to seize that chance.

And what of the Union? Pushed into another referendum with that sort of turmoil in Westminster, the Scots will almost certainly vote for independence. So much for all the smarm pre last year’s Independence vote about how much Scotland means to Tory hearts. Not as much as the riches of Croesus.